Electoral Calculus prediction on these numbers: Tory majority of 190.https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/854804065779429380 …
Here's the breakdown of the Electoral Calculus prediction based on that YouGov poll.pic.twitter.com/hMGplcrfe1
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JFC that's terrifying
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Labour disintegrating over the course of the next 7 weeks may be the best hope for progressive politics right now.
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FWIW, I think their LD numbers are off - we tend to surge locally, not nationally, which means more seats.
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We still gain Cambridge though :-)
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We could stand still and gain Cambridge according to Electoral Calculus - majority is less than a rounding error at 1 decimal place!
End of conversation
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LibDems are going to win a few seats, maybe up to 14 or 15, just because of
#Brexit. That poll's not right. -
I agree. We tend to surge locally rather than nationally IME, so UNS not accurate.
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That better be a "royal we". LibDems are honest on Brexit but not my cup of tea, thx.
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Meanwhile our seat total is... Unchanged
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We tend to surge more locally than nationally, so I doubt UNS is accurate. It makes little difference to the overall majority, sadly.
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We do better locally when local campaigns are driver (1997, 2001) and worse when media is driver (2010).
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What about 2005, our best year?
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We more-or-less hit UNS. And my view of campaign was also that it was both (national) media and local campaigning in equal measure.
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Omg wow
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My bets on 370 to 380 seat for tories..
End of conversation
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