Zach Grannis

@zgrannis

Risk is life — and vice versa | Director of F&S

San Francisco, CA
Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2010.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    14. ožu 2018.

    1/ Thread worth reading and capital shift worth noting. I'd add that consumer-tech VCs seem hungry as ever for network effects (in CPG they are loosely brand-based). As G.A.F.A. increasingly controls distribution in tech, rough odds on new centralized platforms in consumer but...

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  2. 24. tra 2019.
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  3. 18. tra 2019.
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  4. 9. tra 2019.

    *Large format store rationalization needs to accelerate. Retail competing on most selection + lowest prices belongs where there are zero marginal costs to assortment, but small format (retail as experience) benefits from the white space that remains for IRL shopping behavior.

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  5. 25. pro 2018.

    Textbook picks and shovels thesis on display below (from a couple years back). Wish more investors shared memos like this in retrospect. Thank you

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    13. pro 2018.

    I am delighted to announce 's lead investment in , which raised $100M in the last quarter to build the leading platform connecting the best brands to independent retailers. Congrats to & team! Read this for more:

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  7. 25. lip 2018.

    3/ Supply chain doesn’t solve for creative and creative generates the irrational willingness to pay at the premium end. As a result, my guess is that private label remains commodity oriented which is just fine for AMZN because at the end of the day, that’s where the volume trades

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  8. 25. lip 2018.

    2/ Antiquated antitrust regulation seems unlikely to matter. Ultimately comes down to whether AMZN can produce the best value prop where they choose to play. Scale economies and affiliated profit centers certainly stack their odds across the board, but...

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  9. 25. lip 2018.

    1/ This feels important… whereas the alliance between big box retail and large cap CPG preserved a ceiling on private label penetration (via exclusive focus on the “good” of good, better, best), AMZN has little incentive to behave the same and thus, can take share at all levels

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  10. 21. lip 2018.

    Excellent essay on the curvature of network effects. Good reminder that most phenomena follow an s-curve (in the limit). Key to any point in time analysis is knowing where you stand with respect to the arc. Credit:

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  11. 9. lip 2018.

    Also found the framework around models useful: 1) Accuracy vs. baseline 2) Shape of the payoffs - convexity drives adoption curve 3) Timeline to critical mass 4) Stability over time Grateful for the knowledge share

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    14. svi 2018.

    “Get scale or die buying” You either have scale and sell access to it, or don’t and try to buy access to it. Everyone wants virality to leapfrog buying scale. But once you have it, can monetize the hell out of it.

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  13. 8. svi 2018.

    AMZN to carry indie brands that don't sell in TGT, ULTA or WMT. Most indie innovation doesn't exist in those channels so conflicts minimal. Real question is whether indie beauty perceives AMZN as on-brand and whether AMZN can tell those stories like a detox, cap, shen, credo, etc

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    8. svi 2018.
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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    When a choice is inconsequential and reversible, be decisive: the early bird gets the worm. But when the stakes are high and the decision is difficult to undo, take your time: the tortoise beats the hare.

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Many variables drive the success of a factor portfolio, eg: -Data integrity -Factor selection and calculation -Holding period -Concentration -Risk Controls Rebalancing well means maintaining factor edge, net of costs. Information decays. The portfolio should be ALIVE to react.

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  17. 29. tra 2018.

    Should have qualified “early-stage” in front of “investors” above. With limited access to data, risk of confirmation bias is much higher. Best investors acknowledge and account for this — probably best demonstrated in public markets where data is widely accessible

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  18. 29. tra 2018.

    To clarify, dissonance exists because investors tend to rely on confirming evidence. Benefits of using data science can therefore be painful to absorb and apply unless you embrace/appreciate the insight that comes from disconfirmation

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  19. 29. tra 2018.

    Most eloquent expression of the dissonance involved w/ leveraging data science in venture investing. Knee jerk (system 1) reaction to disproving heuristics = frustration, but system 2 appreciates the (non-consensus) edge that results from noise reduction

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Scaleable biz 1. Low CAC (word of mouth) 2. Low marginal costs 3. Huge market 4. Scale economies 5. Few employees 6. Float financing 7. Pricing power 8. Low regulation 9. Low distribution cost 10. Low support costs 11. Low churn 12. Strong network effect Via

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  21. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    25. tra 2018.

    1/ This article is fantastic. Touches on so many of the themes I've been thinking about over the last few years in ecommerce and physical retail. Rising CAC, stores as acquisition channels, feedback loop offline and online. Must read.

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