A voice of reason at the BigNeuro panel: "we are very very far from human-level AI... maybe decades or centuries" - Yoshua Bengio #NIPS2017
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Replying to @poolio
It's odd to hear "decades" as being considered "very very far". That sounds very close to me
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Replying to @jeremyphoward @poolio
I take it to mean "far enough it's beyond our horizon line" (which lies at best decades into the future)
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Decades is practically tomorrow!
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But we can only make predictions when we have enough data and sufficiently reliable models. When it comes to "solving intelligence", we have basically no data about what it entails, and no way to model progress towards a goal we can't even define. We don't know what we don't know
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We'll know it's getting closer when we start developing proper definitions of the goal and reasonable ways to model progress. Since we don't have that today, we know we're far, but we don't know anything more
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For predicting specifics, yes, agree. For getting ready though, broadly speaking, a few decades is very little time. Though I’m not sure what “solving intelligence” will even mean, I’m pretty sure tremendous effects of this process are already here, and accelerating.
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Hard problem because intelligence evolved without the goal of becoming intelligence.
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