I’m open to persuasion but we need measurable outcome - what narrative? What does socialize mean? How do we measure? Etc.
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Replying to @BrendanNyhan @tbonier
Two very well-done experimental voter studies plus the emotional contagion story show how even minimal intervention has measurable effects.
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To do what we fully need to do, we'd need Facebook's cooperation which isn't happening.. So things remain "unknown" while they mint money.
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Two voter-turnout studies are so well-done that the prior has to be that Facebook has significant effects even from one-time intervention.
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but those were effects from actions by *friends*; these were ads. and even then the estimates were tiny fractions of a percentage point IIRC
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it's not binary. Q is size of effects X size of sample that is treated. agree can't know much w/o FB data; point is I have different priors
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Replying to @BrendanNyhan @tbonier
On Facebook, ads and friend content blur. Ads are routinely shared. That's why campaign or media-effects research don't really apply.
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Also, the second voter study tested banner (like ad) vs. feed. I think it's pretty clear at this point that there is real power.
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I understand your priors; I am arguing that they come from a different infrastructure and need different priors for social media effects.
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&i'm saying need to more precisely measure effects so we can update our priors! i have diff priors on effect of diff instrastructure too ;-)
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This, not the ads by themselves. Organic stuff used to figure out targeting—as I speculated this morning & now know. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/10/05/russian-propaganda-may-have-been-shared-hundreds-of-millions-of-times-new-research-says/ …
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