Two very well-done experimental voter studies plus the emotional contagion story show how even minimal intervention has measurable effects.
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To do what we fully need to do, we'd need Facebook's cooperation which isn't happening.. So things remain "unknown" while they mint money.
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Two voter-turnout studies are so well-done that the prior has to be that Facebook has significant effects even from one-time intervention.
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but those were effects from actions by *friends*; these were ads. and even then the estimates were tiny fractions of a percentage point IIRC
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it's not binary. Q is size of effects X size of sample that is treated. agree can't know much w/o FB data; point is I have different priors
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Replying to @BrendanNyhan @tbonier
On Facebook, ads and friend content blur. Ads are routinely shared. That's why campaign or media-effects research don't really apply.
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Also, the second voter study tested banner (like ad) vs. feed. I think it's pretty clear at this point that there is real power.
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I understand your priors; I am arguing that they come from a different infrastructure and need different priors for social media effects.
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Seems to me neither media effect or social influence sub disciplines exactly fit social media platforms. We need new insights. But plenty 1/
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Replying to @svateboje @zeynep and
of work in both suggest social media could have motivational turnout effects big enough to matter in '16. 2/2
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Yes, I agree this is a new form, and incorporates social influence which is potent in all applications. That's pretty much my argument.
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Right. I think we are on same page essentially. If you take direct social effect on turnout work by eg Sinclair, Rolfe; add years of 1/
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Replying to @svateboje @zeynep and
work on FOX up to Martin/Yurukoglu; result sure seems to suggest any SMP communication framed on in-group ID could have similar effects 2/
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