Ah. That seems .. pointless to me. I don't know why they would do that, given all the risk, and much easier tools that Facebook provides.
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Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan
Yes, lookalikes will get people who interact with your message, but you're most likely just preaching to the converted at that point.
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Replying to @tbonier @BrendanNyhan
You're creating a narrative on that converted group, who will then socialize with their broader universe. that's why Facebook is powerful.
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I’m open to persuasion but we need measurable outcome - what narrative? What does socialize mean? How do we measure? Etc.
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Replying to @BrendanNyhan @tbonier
Two very well-done experimental voter studies plus the emotional contagion story show how even minimal intervention has measurable effects.
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To do what we fully need to do, we'd need Facebook's cooperation which isn't happening.. So things remain "unknown" while they mint money.
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Two voter-turnout studies are so well-done that the prior has to be that Facebook has significant effects even from one-time intervention.
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but those were effects from actions by *friends*; these were ads. and even then the estimates were tiny fractions of a percentage point IIRC
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it's not binary. Q is size of effects X size of sample that is treated. agree can't know much w/o FB data; point is I have different priors
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Replying to @BrendanNyhan @tbonier
On Facebook, ads and friend content blur. Ads are routinely shared. That's why campaign or media-effects research don't really apply.
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Also, the second voter study tested banner (like ad) vs. feed. I think it's pretty clear at this point that there is real power.
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I understand your priors; I am arguing that they come from a different infrastructure and need different priors for social media effects.
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Seems to me neither media effect or social influence sub disciplines exactly fit social media platforms. We need new insights. But plenty 1/
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