Modeled universes? You mean this is significant for collusion issues? I agree that's almost certainly not what they would do.
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But I'm not sure why they would do that to begin with.
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Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan
Leveraging the wealth of understanding of voters w/ offline data (persuasion/support models) to target online, as w/ most campaign digital $
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Replying to @tbonier @BrendanNyhan
that's efficient on the front end, but a lot of work on the backend. In their shoes, I wouldn't bother.
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Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan
Right, but many had suggested Russians were getting targets FROM the campaign and targeting on FB. This, if true, says they were not.
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Replying to @tbonier @BrendanNyhan
Ah. That seems .. pointless to me. I don't know why they would do that, given all the risk, and much easier tools that Facebook provides.
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Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan
The point would be efficiency/efficacy. If you assume <5% of total pop movable by messaging, and the campaign has modeled that 5%...
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That’s the point, in part - different priors about how many are movable by messaging
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Replying to @BrendanNyhan @tbonier
It's not messaging in the traditional sense though, it is socialization. A lot of evidence that people are movable on Facebook like that.
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Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan
Yep, fair. Again, my original pt was in response to the potential for evidence of direct collusion.
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