I've tried pointing this out for years now. Can't do a regression and declare, oh, "it's race" when two are linked. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446 …pic.twitter.com/upSeTeJui3
Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org
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I've tried pointing this out for years now. Can't do a regression and declare, oh, "it's race" when two are linked. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446 …pic.twitter.com/upSeTeJui3
Honestly think the simplistic "explainers" and the "oh, look cultural anxiety" jokes on Twitter were big part why Dem messaging was so off.
In the US, many people's views on race and economic status/politics are linked, intertwined, strong feedback cycle. Rs get this; Dems don't.
Left/dems fell victim to "scientism" in 2016. The polling probability models with error pattern left unexplained and race/econ "explainers".
Probability models were uninterpretable by most, and no site did a good job. Regression based race/econ "explainers" terribly misleading.
And the aura of science badly done or presented blinded Dems both to the reality, and why their messaging was so weak. So here we are.
For clarity: corollary of this argument is that antiracism has to be central to the Dem platform. Morally no other way but also practically.
Part they missed is there is a big reason this is an economically populist moment—and no, people are not just fine. It is a time of anxiety.
Historically, if such moments are not met with progressive, anti-racist version, you see rise of Herrenvolk democracy. Super common pattern.
Anyway, cross-sectional regressions aren't good for everything & probability models need better explanation + highlighting correlated error.
do you know of a good stats 101 explainer on this that works through an example?
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