I've tried pointing this out for years now. Can't do a regression and declare, oh, "it's race" when two are linked. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446 …pic.twitter.com/upSeTeJui3
Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org
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I've tried pointing this out for years now. Can't do a regression and declare, oh, "it's race" when two are linked. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446 …pic.twitter.com/upSeTeJui3
Honestly think the simplistic "explainers" and the "oh, look cultural anxiety" jokes on Twitter were big part why Dem messaging was so off.
In the US, many people's views on race and economic status/politics are linked, intertwined, strong feedback cycle. Rs get this; Dems don't.
Left/dems fell victim to "scientism" in 2016. The polling probability models with error pattern left unexplained and race/econ "explainers".
No, didn't do a good job presenting correlated error pattern meant, ie correlated state polls are off by 2%, odds go up, say, by 40%.
It's the range of underlying, correlated error and how it moves the odds HUGELY with tiny shift that was left unexplained, non-understood.
538 had it in the footnotes; and that's the best we got. Most sites didn't even have that. Can't do this in the footnotes.
Not useful. It's correlated state error that matters for winning the presidency.
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