I've tried pointing this out for years now. Can't do a regression and declare, oh, "it's race" when two are linked. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446 …pic.twitter.com/upSeTeJui3
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No, didn't do a good job presenting correlated error pattern meant, ie correlated state polls are off by 2%, odds go up, say, by 40%.
It's the range of underlying, correlated error and how it moves the odds HUGELY with tiny shift that was left unexplained, non-understood.
538 had it in the footnotes; and that's the best we got. Most sites didn't even have that. Can't do this in the footnotes.
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