And it can explain change, why not? See this a lot in history of tech. Changes hands.
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Replying to @zeynep @kreissdaniel
Question is whether data prowess can only mediate money/power=>victory, or can it also moderate. '08 suggests moderation is possible.
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Replying to @AndrewJPerrin @kreissdaniel
The mechanism isn't stable, though, and the question I'm interested in is its evolution.
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Replying to @zeynep @AndrewJPerrin
Well, empirically I would say that parties still drive this process for all sorts of institutional reasons.
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And, empirically the evidence from this cycle is not at all clear about the role of outside groups in this sort of targeting.
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I'm not sure the pushback your received in 2012, but it seemed less about other people using data and more it's limited effects
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In other words, lots of other things matter a lot more - candidates for instance. Data gain efficiency on the margins, and targeting message
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Takes place in a much more dynamic media ecosystem - politics is not reducible to Facebook ads.
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I thought that was Ethan's point... that at the end of the day, it is not mass manipulation but gains in things like turnout
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Replying to @kreissdaniel @AndrewJPerrin
Obviously candidates matter. But Facebook/social media shapes a lot more than through ads though those also matter.
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Obviously, like anything else interesting, this is a multi causal process. But I don't think the party infrastructure change that much+
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in just a few years, in a way that made misinformation campaign is so much more viable. But the public/info sphere has been changing fast.
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Replying to @zeynep @AndrewJPerrin
Maybe, maybe not. I don't quite accept that as an empirical matter that the public/info sphere is radically different in consequential ways
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