Election 2016; Super Bowl 2017. Probability models are not like poll percentages. Probability models are not like poll percentages. Probabi—
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A 10-20% event in a probability model is not a black swan, though. Once or twice a decade for Superbowl. Common.https://twitter.com/ebishirl/status/828449719139565568 …
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nate silver's discussed that at length, but I doubt many people read those explanations, and doesn't change presentation
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@WSJ Yup. “Never let your precision exceed your accuracy.”Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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what is wrong with this precision? Confidence does not come with accuracy actually they are not even related
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@WSJ yes, especially something that relies on human behavior more than physicsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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