Election 2016; Super Bowl 2017. Probability models are not like poll percentages. Probability models are not like poll percentages. Probabi—
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That extra digit after the decimal? Scientism. Probability models shouldn't imply that kind of confident precision.https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/828419447698366465 …
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A 10-20% event in a probability model is not a black swan, though. Once or twice a decade for Superbowl. Common.https://twitter.com/ebishirl/status/828449719139565568 …
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@zeynep Even 90%-10% probability model is a pretty close thing. 10% is not trivial. Happens a lot. Well, 1 out of 10 times or so. :-)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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