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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Feb 2017

      Election 2016; Super Bowl 2017. Probability models are not like poll percentages. Probability models are not like poll percentages. Probabi—

      4 replies 80 retweets 235 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Feb 2017
      Replying to @zeynep

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ben Alamar

      May have a place on many gravestones, maybe one for the planet. Probability models are not like poll percentages.https://twitter.com/BenAlamarESPN/status/828440020679798785 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Ben Alamar @BenCAlamar
      Things change pic.twitter.com/LWN7FLN3D6
      4 replies 35 retweets 74 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Feb 2017
      Replying to @zeynep

      Maybe the only five minute window this has a chance: Folks, either ban probability models or make statistics mandatory every year in K-12.😀

      6 replies 99 retweets 211 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Feb 2017

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted The Wall Street Journal

      This kind of bad communication (plus lack of clarity on correlated errors) is how people got misled in the election.https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/828419447698366465 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      The Wall Street JournalVerified account @WSJ
      The Falcons now have a 91.6% chance of winning Super Bowl LI. Live analysis: http://on.wsj.com/2kgSJNI 
      7:42 PM - 5 Feb 2017
      • 34 Retweets
      • 75 Likes
      • Nancy Fils Marta Iain Watson Stencil Erik Hestnes ɐnɥsoſ N.M.F Charlie Daly StlGal
      5 replies 34 retweets 75 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Feb 2017
          Replying to @zeynep

          A 60-40% election is a landslide. A 60-40% probability model is a near toss-up, especially if error bars are sizeable (as they often are).

          3 replies 25 retweets 80 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Feb 2017
          Replying to @zeynep

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted The Wall Street Journal

          That extra digit after the decimal? Scientism. Probability models shouldn't imply that kind of confident precision.https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/828419447698366465 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          The Wall Street JournalVerified account @WSJ
          The Falcons now have a 91.6% chance of winning Super Bowl LI. Live analysis: http://on.wsj.com/2kgSJNI 
          7 replies 38 retweets 113 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Dean S‏ @DinoStraciatela 5 Feb 2017
          Replying to @zeynep

          there were intrastate correlated errors in election. Not a particularly applicable term here.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dean S‏ @DinoStraciatela 5 Feb 2017
          Replying to @DinoStraciatela @zeynep

          8.4% chances happen sometimes! About 8.4% of the time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Daniel “dietary course correction” Summers, MD‏Verified account @WFKARS 5 Feb 2017
          Replying to @zeynep

          yes. Thank you. A million times yes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Shirley Siluk‏ @ebishirl 5 Feb 2017
          Replying to @zeynep @michikokakutani

          Not just bad communication, but bad science/math, failure to allow for "black swans," etc.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        1. feral steve‏ @politisteve 5 Feb 2017
          Replying to @zeynep

          Agree. Headline that said score and quarter would have been much more useful.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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