Story of AI is the boy who cried wolf. So many hype cycles below our belt that when thing really start happening, many don't/won't buy it.https://twitter.com/farnamstreet/status/813227950514565121 …
Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Shane Parrish
Story of AI is the boy who cried wolf. So many hype cycles below our belt that when thing really start happening, many don't/won't buy it.https://twitter.com/farnamstreet/status/813227950514565121 …
zeynep tufekci added,
The thing to watch for isn't will AI write poetry people find beautiful. It is: how many jobs will it be "good enough" to replace?
The Turing Test is of interest to philosophy. For employers, the bar is much lower. "Good enough to replace humans without pervasive error?"
The "good enough" bar is being cleared in field after field, and the developments are feeding on themselves. Software building on itself.
If I could introduce new tests & "laws": the "good enough" test for employment effects, and software/ML building on itself for development.
I think the "good enough" effects will be quite widespread in about a decade. That's two-three presidential elections. That is soon.
strongly disagree on the number of presidential elections there will be per decade
my predictive horizon doesn’t extend past lunch. Trying to take the appropriate lesson from my complete prediction failure
let's work on getting your dinner plans under control? I'm now feeling anxious for you.
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