Problem with the "archduke" comparison is that the likely effect of this is in the opposite direction of that one. And pretty obviously so.
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I agree in the main. But Trump is about to get a NATO 101 course, however.
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we should not overestimate rational intents of state actors. Shit is piling up and won't take much to trigger irreversible horrors.
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I don't mean things are going well; no. Major unresolved & deepening crises. But a "July Ultimatum" isn't coming from this event.
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