Key actor in this saga: People saw 70-90% Clinton win probability; didn't understand that 1-2% polling error would move that by 30-40%.
how do you get that? I haven't put up the spreadsheet with polls and outcomes (though seen a few).
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RCP average was I think 3 % for Clinton. The election result is about 2.2% as of now. Will be probably more at the end.
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That's national poll; the real issue is correlated error in state polls.
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