Key actor in this saga: People saw 70-90% Clinton win probability; didn't understand that 1-2% polling error would move that by 30-40%.
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We had: fewer state polls than ever. Presidential models are based on 11 prior cases, not strong. Plus, our polls getting worse.
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Models were guesstimating places like Michigan where there was little to no public polling. Needed to communicate all this.
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