Key actor in this saga: People saw 70-90% Clinton win probability; didn't understand that 1-2% polling error would move that by 30-40%.
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A deeper question (I think): Why is "probability of victory" even reported as if it's news?
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There's some argument that it's less misleading than raw candidate preference # because of how sampling error influences.
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@NateSilver538 One potential messaging improvement: "Ann is more likely to win than Bob — but there is a 30% chance of a flip." -
Or just show projected winner & probability of other outcomes. Should be tested, goal is to avoid 51% wins priming.pic.twitter.com/6uMa9EBGCb
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