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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2016

      Key actor in this saga: People saw 70-90% Clinton win probability; didn't understand that 1-2% polling error would move that by 30-40%.

      20 replies 117 retweets 352 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      That's how everyone made pre-election decisions. That's the lens to understand then. Failure of infosec and data modeling shaped it all.

      3 replies 16 retweets 63 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      There is a whole field on risk communication and information visualization that works on how to do this responsibly. https://twitter.com/briankgolden/status/807450442598912000 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      4 replies 9 retweets 57 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Yes, 538 was the best, and tried to explain & was resisted. Many worse ones. Even 538 needed to communicate better. https://twitter.com/Mike_Knew/status/807454359961227268 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      3 replies 6 retweets 23 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2016

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brian Stelter

      .. Whole world needs explainers on sources of error and corresponding scale of volatility in probability models.https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/807461082985992192 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Brian StelterVerified account @brianstelter
      "The Russians were as surprised as everyone else at Mr. Trump's victory, intelligence officials said." http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/obama-russia-election-hack.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share …
      9:55 PM - 9 Dec 2016
      • 8 Retweets
      • 23 Likes
      • toxic gas maskulinity N.W. F. H. 🇭🇹 svateboje mersenne tweeter Nicole Oertli King pete for america Michael Habib Kevin Riggle Elizabeth Lansing
      6 replies 8 retweets 23 likes
        1. Duane “Freedom To Vote Act” Bindschadler‏ @dbindsch 9 Dec 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          Most people never really get statistics - and for much of it, you need to be able to work thru the math to have insight.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Aviv Ovadya  🥦

          Yes, people see 70% model, think blowout—as election. In truth, 70% probability is close esp. if polls aren't great.https://twitter.com/metaviv/status/807462402434461696 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Aviv Ovadya  🥦 @metaviv
          Replying to @zeynep
          Especially as democracy primes people to think > 50% means a win. Pollsters need better design/messaging to represent uncertainty.
          2 replies 4 retweets 30 likes
        3. Saul Tannenbaum‏ @stannenb 9 Dec 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          A deeper question (I think): Why is "probability of victory" even reported as if it's news?

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Blake La Pierre‏ @BlakeLaPierre 9 Dec 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          Why do you need a probability model of an election? Let the people speak.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Lisa Garner (she/her)‏ @lisagarner_lisa 9 Dec 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          Russian involvement still an evolving story. Russians were surprised at T win like Bin Laden was surprised when WTC collapsed.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Just passerine by‏ @TheMadTitmouse 9 Dec 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          @brianstelter Yes. It's an education problem. Traditional schooling can't adapt fast enough. Media needs to take part of that role.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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