Key actor in this saga: People saw 70-90% Clinton win probability; didn't understand that 1-2% polling error would move that by 30-40%.
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Most people never really get statistics - and for much of it, you need to be able to work thru the math to have insight.
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Yes, people see 70% model, think blowout—as election. In truth, 70% probability is close esp. if polls aren't great.https://twitter.com/metaviv/status/807462402434461696 …
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A deeper question (I think): Why is "probability of victory" even reported as if it's news?
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Why do you need a probability model of an election? Let the people speak.
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Russian involvement still an evolving story. Russians were surprised at T win like Bin Laden was surprised when WTC collapsed.
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@brianstelter Yes. It's an education problem. Traditional schooling can't adapt fast enough. Media needs to take part of that role.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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