Key actor in this saga: People saw 70-90% Clinton win probability; didn't understand that 1-2% polling error would move that by 30-40%.
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Replying to @zeynep
: Except when we literally wrote that for like 10 days straight and the whole Internet got mad at us:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ …
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Replying to @NateSilver538 @zeynep
I love 538 but now's not the time for "see I told you so."
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My preference is for modeling to start around conventions; updated once a week until mid-September.
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Seems clear convention bounces aren't meaningful till about week after & polls not till September.
9:28 PM - 9 Dec 2016
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