Key actor in this saga: People saw 70-90% Clinton win probability; didn't understand that 1-2% polling error would move that by 30-40%.
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tbf to Nate, I recall him and at least another 538 writer making that very case. Ppl wouldn't listen.
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I wish you had visually integrated the piece above to top of model page—opposite of NYT putting "90% win!!!" on every piece.
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Point is also the average person doesn't have enough math skill to even understand these sorts of numbers.
@NateSilver538 -
So all they will EVER see/hear is the Hilary 70% win number
@NateSilver538
End of conversation
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