That's how everyone made pre-election decisions. That's the lens to understand then. Failure of infosec and data modeling shaped it all.
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There is a whole field on risk communication and information visualization that works on how to do this responsibly. https://twitter.com/briankgolden/status/807450442598912000 …
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I know twitter isn't the place for this, but I don't see how the numbers you quote could be correct.
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correlated error, on top of the regular margin of error.
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i suspect people read "70%" as 70% of the vote.
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: Except when we literally wrote that for like 10 days straight and the whole Internet got mad at us:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ …
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I love 538 but now's not the time for "see I told you so."
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Oh I know, and I agreed. Tonight, as the republic hangs in balance, scoring points on this is low priority.
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My biggest beef is NYT putting "90% Clinton Win" on TOP OF EVERY STORY.
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State polls are what matter; their errors are correlated; and we had fewer and lousier state polls than ever.
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