: ...that people have trouble interpreting probabilistic odds is definitely somewhere high on the list, but it's a long list.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
It is no doubt a long list. People's priors caused them to resist. That said; this one is in your corner, where you can lead.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
NYT had their "90% Clinton!" bar on every election story. Even if the reporting had been better... Holy priming batman.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
On 538, topline dominated people's attention, I think, even with stories & fine-print that correctly conveyed uncertainty.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
But the 538 top line did convey much of the needed uncertainty!
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Replying to @deaneckles @NateSilver538
What people don't understand is what an underlying *correlated* error of 1-2% means for topline probability.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
If readers interpreted the top line probability correctly, that wouldn't be necessary.
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I think those, like NYT, that had >90% are the ones needing more criticism & changes for future forecasts.
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Replying to @deaneckles @NateSilver538
Yes, NYT was worse—especially if you consider it topped every story. But must try to make readers understand, no?
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NYT perhaps a double whammy: seems highly likely it also primed their editorial/coverage decisions too
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Yep; and all of media—NYT isn't read everywhere, but it disproportionately affects journalists.
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Replying to @zeynep @jamesdcamp and
Among targeted WWC voters, warning signs came as early as January http://www.workingamerica.org/frontporchfocusgroup …
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