A month ago, people were getting so mad about articles like these: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ … http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/ …http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/ …
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Articles were fine; people getting mad were wrong. 538 was best out there. Yet. Topline & graphs did NOT communicate this.
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Replying to @zeynep
: I dunno. The articles were very widely read—we have the data on that—but actively resisted because they didn't fit people's priors.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
: I think there's a whole swamp of cognitive & journalistic biases at play in why people thought Clinton was a sure thing...
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Replying to @NateSilver538
: ...that people have trouble interpreting probabilistic odds is definitely somewhere high on the list, but it's a long list.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
It is no doubt a long list. People's priors caused them to resist. That said; this one is in your corner, where you can lead.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
NYT had their "90% Clinton!" bar on every election story. Even if the reporting had been better... Holy priming batman.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
On 538, topline dominated people's attention, I think, even with stories & fine-print that correctly conveyed uncertainty.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
But the 538 top line did convey much of the needed uncertainty!
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Replying to @deaneckles @NateSilver538
What people don't understand is what an underlying *correlated* error of 1-2% means for topline probability.
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That has to be conveyed, somehow, exactly where people get the topline. Risk communication field deals with this.
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