A month ago, people were getting so mad about articles like these: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ … http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/ …http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/ …
What people don't understand is what an underlying *correlated* error of 1-2% means for topline probability.
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That has to be conveyed, somehow, exactly where people get the topline. Risk communication field deals with this.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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If readers interpreted the top line probability correctly, that wouldn't be necessary.
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I think those, like NYT, that had >90% are the ones needing more criticism & changes for future forecasts.
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