A month ago, people were getting so mad about articles like these: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ … http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/ …http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/ …
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My wishlist: visual incorporation to topline what correlated error means & where volatility comes from —and fewer updates.
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Many kept refreshing (and were rewarded with slight changes) as a means to try to confirm their priors. How to break this?
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But the 538 top line did convey much of the needed uncertainty!
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What people don't understand is what an underlying *correlated* error of 1-2% means for topline probability.
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