A month ago, people were getting so mad about articles like these: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ … http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/ …http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/ …
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Replying to @mttyspn @NateSilver538
Because people don't understand what the model is doing, and what the source of volatility is.
1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
At this point, I'm quite skeptical that any constantly updated model—starting a year out—serves democracy well.+
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
Also when "uncertainty" is very high - far from election - odds should approach 50/50, not wild swings.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Replying to @mdpollak @NateSilver538
Polls/models convey very little info until weeks after both conventions, tbh. Electorate is ~48-48.
7:11 AM - 5 Dec 2016
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