A month ago, people were getting so mad about articles like these: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ … http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/ …http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/ …
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Updates much less often; better visual communication of uncertainty; what correlated errors mean; start later...
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But those go against the underlying business model; why I think modeling is great but not as lead-clickgetter.
End of conversation
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Also when "uncertainty" is very high - far from election - odds should approach 50/50, not wild swings.
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Polls/models convey very little info until weeks after both conventions, tbh. Electorate is ~48-48.
End of conversation
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If you *know* some other thing will serve democracy well shouldn’t you be doing *that* thing?
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Didn't start a year out. Launched in June 2016.
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