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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      your evidence for that?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @derekwillis

      Watching it unfold online and offline for a year, among many reporters who drove coverage, and many ordinary voters.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis

      I wish there was candid interviews with reporters right after election. They had not understood the uncertainty of forecasts.

      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      which reporters didn't understand that Trump was likely to win OH & that FL/NC were very tight? Which ones didn't see PA as key?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @derekwillis

      They didn't understand that, errors correlated means that a 1-2% shift changes the whole election. Different than 90% chance!

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Andrew Maragni  🇺🇸‏ @Drew106 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis

      A lot of these complaints don't square w/ fact that 538 had the odds of an Obama W @ >90% in '12. Far greater than 71%

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @Drew106 @derekwillis

      My issue isn't forecasts have error and uncertainty. Of course they do. They need to communicate this better.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Andrew Maragni  🇺🇸‏ @Drew106 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis

      @NateSilver538 explicitly refuted both the "blue wall" idea and that states move independently of 1 another many times

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @Drew106 @derekwillis @NateSilver538

      I read it! On twitter. In footnotes. Long form. It was correct. Topline continued to not convey this.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. kevin‏ @keviniswriting 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @Drew106 and

      Risk losing nuances when polling is presented as giant theoretical team scoreboards.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @keviniswriting @NateSilver538 @derekwillis

      538 was better than anyone else; but my issue is conveying of error pattern. That was lacking.

      9:47 AM - 27 Nov 2016
      • 6 Likes
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      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. 𒇷 𒁯𒅗‏ @Lee__Drake 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 and

          The problem with forecasting is a false certainty which may influence campaign coverage

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. 𒇷 𒁯𒅗‏ @Lee__Drake 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @Lee__Drake @zeynep and

          In a sense, it may encourage journalistic herding on what issues are important

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. kevin‏ @keviniswriting 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          Agreed, wasn't a criticism of just 538 presentation as other outlets had same model. So many just focused on the big numbers though.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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