did they discuss forecasting before 2012 election? did that matter, given that election was judged safer by 538 but not by NYT?
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Replying to @derekwillis
2012 was forecasted to be closer, split among forecasters; that communicates uncertainty, makes forecasting have less impact.
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Replying to @zeynep
so most voters are checking multiple forecasters and factoring all of them into their decision making?
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Replying to @derekwillis
I think 538 and NYT upshot were key; they framed it everyone else, influenced a lot.
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Replying to @derekwillis
Watching it unfold online and offline for a year, among many reporters who drove coverage, and many ordinary voters.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
I wish there was candid interviews with reporters right after election. They had not understood the uncertainty of forecasts.
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Replying to @zeynep
which reporters didn't understand that Trump was likely to win OH & that FL/NC were very tight? Which ones didn't see PA as key?
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Replying to @derekwillis
They didn't understand that, errors correlated means that a 1-2% shift changes the whole election. Different than 90% chance!
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
A lot of these complaints don't square w/ fact that 538 had the odds of an Obama W @ >90% in '12. Far greater than 71%
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My issue isn't forecasts have error and uncertainty. Of course they do. They need to communicate this better.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
@NateSilver538 explicitly refuted both the "blue wall" idea and that states move independently of 1 another many times1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
I read it! On twitter. In footnotes. Long form. It was correct. Topline continued to not convey this.
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