as someone who witnessed newsroom impact of it in 2012, i don't think it lines up exactly the way you suggest.
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Replying to @derekwillis
It's worth considering if the convergent certainty in 2016 played differently than more contested 2012.
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Replying to @zeynep
there was outright hostility to it in 2012 in NYT newsroom; that, more than uncertainty in forecast, had impact.
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Replying to @derekwillis
I take your point; I think it might have been different in 2016. Something worth looking at. I think it had more influence.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
I think reporters have the wrong kind of hostility. Hostile to keep doing baseless punditry. I wished modeling would kill that.
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Replying to @zeynep
so to say that 2012 impact was tempered by uncertainty across forecasts i think is wrong.
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Replying to @derekwillis
In 2012, I did not like the causes of reporter hostility.https://www.wired.com/2012/11/why-predictions-and-statistical-models-are-necessary-and-good-for-democracy/ …
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Replying to @zeynep
me neither, but it did more to make forecasting less influential among reporters than uncertainty did.
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Replying to @derekwillis
Reporters aren't good at understanding this stuff; its strengths or its weaknesses. They are often wrong on both.
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Replying to @zeynep
agreed. could be why apportioning more of the blame to forecasters strikes me as wrong.
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They must do a better job conveying correlated errors, feedback loops, etc. What worries me: "it was in the footnotes, shrug".
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
Possible my worries overlaps with none of the reporter's hostility to forecasting—replacing process stories they want to do.
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