seems like you're putting most of blame on forecasting, which strikes me as very unfair.
-
-
Replying to @derekwillis
Gosh no. Hard to untangle. Communicating —plainly & visually—uncertainty & error have to become integral to data journalism.
2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
you've spent a lot of time saying that forecasting had huge influence on reporters, editors & voters.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @derekwillis
zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
I think it did. Would they fail as bad on editorial allocation without it? Dunno. Maybe, maybe not.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/802656352799629312 …
zeynep tufekci added,
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @zeynep
and there are no other possible factors of equal weight? TV coverage?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
I can name ten factors; doesn't make any one of them not worth exploring, especially if it is one's field.
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @zeynep
as someone who witnessed newsroom impact of it in 2012, i don't think it lines up exactly the way you suggest.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
It's worth considering if the convergent certainty in 2016 played differently than more contested 2012.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
there was outright hostility to it in 2012 in NYT newsroom; that, more than uncertainty in forecast, had impact.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
I take your point; I think it might have been different in 2016. Something worth looking at. I think it had more influence.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
I think reporters have the wrong kind of hostility. Hostile to keep doing baseless punditry. I wished modeling would kill that.
-
-
Replying to @zeynep
so to say that 2012 impact was tempered by uncertainty across forecasts i think is wrong.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
In 2012, I did not like the causes of reporter hostility.https://www.wired.com/2012/11/why-predictions-and-statistical-models-are-necessary-and-good-for-democracy/ …
2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes - Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.