They didn't understand that, errors correlated means that a 1-2% shift changes the whole election. Different than 90% chance!
-
-
Replying to @zeynep
Nate Silver literally talked about this all the time in last month. So is 538 influential or not?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
He talked about it on Twitter; on footnotes; sometimes in long-form. Topline visual remained the same.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
-
Replying to @derekwillis
hah, true, but doesn't work. Too short; some see, some don't. Hard to understand. Burden was on topline, to communicate better.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @zeynep
do we know how many reporters visited the 538 topline and didn't read footnotes?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
hahaha would love a survey and would bet you an expensive dinner 1-they don't; 2-not written at their level.
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @zeynep
seems like you're putting most of blame on forecasting, which strikes me as very unfair.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
Gosh no. Hard to untangle. Communicating —plainly & visually—uncertainty & error have to become integral to data journalism.
2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
you've spent a lot of time saying that forecasting had huge influence on reporters, editors & voters.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
I think it did. Would they fail as bad on editorial allocation without it? Dunno. Maybe, maybe not.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/802656352799629312 …
zeynep tufekci added,
-
-
Replying to @zeynep
and there are no other possible factors of equal weight? TV coverage?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @derekwillis
I can name ten factors; doesn't make any one of them not worth exploring, especially if it is one's field.
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like - Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.