what's the evidence that forecasters influenced voter decision making?
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Nate Silver literally talked about this all the time in last month. So is 538 influential or not?
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He talked about it on Twitter; on footnotes; sometimes in long-form. Topline visual remained the same.
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A lot of these complaints don't square w/ fact that 538 had the odds of an Obama W @ >90% in '12. Far greater than 71%
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My issue isn't forecasts have error and uncertainty. Of course they do. They need to communicate this better.
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