what's the evidence that forecasters influenced voter decision making?
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Replying to @derekwillis
Someone should do a field study. I saw tons of discussions of it online. People pondering third party because "safe" elex.
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Replying to @zeynep
did they discuss forecasting before 2012 election? did that matter, given that election was judged safer by 538 but not by NYT?
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Replying to @derekwillis
2012 was forecasted to be closer, split among forecasters; that communicates uncertainty, makes forecasting have less impact.
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Replying to @zeynep
so most voters are checking multiple forecasters and factoring all of them into their decision making?
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Replying to @derekwillis
I think 538 and NYT upshot were key; they framed it everyone else, influenced a lot.
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Replying to @derekwillis
Watching it unfold online and offline for a year, among many reporters who drove coverage, and many ordinary voters.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
I wish there was candid interviews with reporters right after election. They had not understood the uncertainty of forecasts.
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Replying to @zeynep
if so, how can you be so certain that it was forecasts that drove their coverage as opposed to other factors, like their sources?
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Likely? Sure. But the forecasts—over every NYT story; huge traffic to 538—influenced framing.
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Replying to @zeynep
again, i don't think you can say that for sure without evidence beyond anecdotal observation.
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Replying to @derekwillis
I have a whole year of a lot of observation; web traffic and placement also shows influence. Would welcome better research.
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End of conversation
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