There is no one explanation of the election. But absolutely, people were shocked by the win; influenced media coverage before+
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is it possible (likely?) that even without forecasts they would have judged Clinton more likely to win?
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if so, how can you be so certain that it was forecasts that drove their coverage as opposed to other factors, like their sources?
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Likely? Sure. But the forecasts—over every NYT story; huge traffic to 538—influenced framing.
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which reporters didn't understand that Trump was likely to win OH & that FL/NC were very tight? Which ones didn't see PA as key?
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They didn't understand that, errors correlated means that a 1-2% shift changes the whole election. Different than 90% chance!
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