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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @derekwillis

      There is no one explanation of the election. But absolutely, people were shocked by the win; influenced media coverage before+

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      it influenced voter decision-making. It led to tweets like this: https://twitter.com/snowden/status/789574275518828544 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      what's the evidence that forecasters influenced voter decision making?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @derekwillis

      Someone should do a field study. I saw tons of discussions of it online. People pondering third party because "safe" elex.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      did they discuss forecasting before 2012 election? did that matter, given that election was judged safer by 538 but not by NYT?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @derekwillis

      2012 was forecasted to be closer, split among forecasters; that communicates uncertainty, makes forecasting have less impact.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      so most voters are checking multiple forecasters and factoring all of them into their decision making?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @derekwillis

      I think 538 and NYT upshot were key; they framed it everyone else, influenced a lot.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      your evidence for that?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @derekwillis

      Watching it unfold online and offline for a year, among many reporters who drove coverage, and many ordinary voters.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis

      I wish there was candid interviews with reporters right after election. They had not understood the uncertainty of forecasts.

      7:55 AM - 27 Nov 2016
      • 5 Likes
      • Jonathon Heide Hehe24 😷 Valerie kevin TheHealthPolicyGroup
      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          is it possible (likely?) that even without forecasts they would have judged Clinton more likely to win?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          if so, how can you be so certain that it was forecasts that drove their coverage as opposed to other factors, like their sources?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @derekwillis

          Likely? Sure. But the forecasts—over every NYT story; huge traffic to 538—influenced framing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Derek Willis‏Verified account @derekwillis 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @zeynep

          which reporters didn't understand that Trump was likely to win OH & that FL/NC were very tight? Which ones didn't see PA as key?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Nov 2016
          Replying to @derekwillis

          They didn't understand that, errors correlated means that a 1-2% shift changes the whole election. Different than 90% chance!

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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