Talked about on Twitter. In footnotes. I caught it. It's the topline I object to. People just refreshed the percentage.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
It was updated for every single poll. Digits after decimal point. Uncertainty—say via error dial—never visually communicated.
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Replying to @zeynep
so ppl were seduced by decimal points. that's that explanation for the election?
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Replying to @derekwillis
There is no one explanation of the election. But absolutely, people were shocked by the win; influenced media coverage before+
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
zeynep tufekci Retweeted
it influenced voter decision-making. It led to tweets like this: https://twitter.com/snowden/status/789574275518828544 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @zeynep
what's the evidence that forecasters influenced voter decision making?
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Replying to @derekwillis
Someone should do a field study. I saw tons of discussions of it online. People pondering third party because "safe" elex.
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Replying to @zeynep
did they discuss forecasting before 2012 election? did that matter, given that election was judged safer by 538 but not by NYT?
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Replying to @derekwillis
2012 was forecasted to be closer, split among forecasters; that communicates uncertainty, makes forecasting have less impact.
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Replying to @zeynep
so most voters are checking multiple forecasters and factoring all of them into their decision making?
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I think 538 and NYT upshot were key; they framed it everyone else, influenced a lot.
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Replying to @derekwillis
Watching it unfold online and offline for a year, among many reporters who drove coverage, and many ordinary voters.
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