and 538 in particular repeatedly talked about possibility & likelihood of polling errors & how they could effect outcome.
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Replying to @derekwillis
Talked about on Twitter. In footnotes. I caught it. It's the topline I object to. People just refreshed the percentage.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
It was updated for every single poll. Digits after decimal point. Uncertainty—say via error dial—never visually communicated.
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Replying to @zeynep
so ppl were seduced by decimal points. that's that explanation for the election?
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Replying to @derekwillis
There is no one explanation of the election. But absolutely, people were shocked by the win; influenced media coverage before+
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
zeynep tufekci Retweeted
it influenced voter decision-making. It led to tweets like this: https://twitter.com/snowden/status/789574275518828544 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @zeynep
what's the evidence that forecasters influenced voter decision making?
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Replying to @derekwillis
Someone should do a field study. I saw tons of discussions of it online. People pondering third party because "safe" elex.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
But, more importantly, it influenced media coverage of candidates. Have candid discussions with editors about pre-elex choices.
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Replying to @zeynep
blaming forecasters for choices of editors is a complete cop-out.
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I'm blaming forecasters for not communicating uncertainty properly. Because it was in the footnotes.
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Replying to @zeynep @derekwillis
Forecasters have a job and a lot of clicks because they are meant to convey what we do and don't know. Didn't happen right.
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