Footnotes correctly said "errors are correlated" or "model is based only on 11 cases". Meanwhile, topline lulled. https://twitter.com/randomsubu/status/802898032958312448 …
2012 was forecasted to be closer, split among forecasters; that communicates uncertainty, makes forecasting have less impact.
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so most voters are checking multiple forecasters and factoring all of them into their decision making?
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I think 538 and NYT upshot were key; they framed it everyone else, influenced a lot.
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