538 was best—at least footnotes communicated uncertainty. However, the faux precise huge topline did not convey it; functioned as clickbait.
Someone should do a field study. I saw tons of discussions of it online. People pondering third party because "safe" elex.
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But, more importantly, it influenced media coverage of candidates. Have candid discussions with editors about pre-elex choices.
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blaming forecasters for choices of editors is a complete cop-out.
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did they discuss forecasting before 2012 election? did that matter, given that election was judged safer by 538 but not by NYT?
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2012 was forecasted to be closer, split among forecasters; that communicates uncertainty, makes forecasting have less impact.
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