with respect, it seems disingenuous to fault 538 for their readers' failure to understand probabilities
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Readers failed to grasp that a 70% chance isn't a pass on a test, it's 2-to-1 odds & there's only 1 universe to test those odds in
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And 538 was among the best of the lot. Some of its visualizations were super, but presentation to non-stat audience matters.
@NateSilver538 -
A general purpose website cannot say that. "Errors are correlated" could have been communicated, say, with a dial.https://twitter.com/mattdukeleduc/status/797191496701251585 …
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What gets me is that—regardless of the %—we have no way of falsifying/testing the prediction, bc it is 1 experiment
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This time my "Like" click is an endorsement. Glad you spoke up.
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@rohit_x_ Poor@NateSilver538 Trump was his Kryptonite LThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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A lot of criticism for the only reason I personally wasn't "shocked".
@FiveThirtyEight How about the landslide@HuffingtonPost ?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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