Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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Replying to @zeynep
This is an oversimplification. Presidential elections are rare but elections generally are common, and some information generalizes
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Replying to @zacharylipton
Some. Not enough to make or judge predictions to tenths of a percent.
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Replying to @zeynep
But they don't really. They don't say the margin of error is tenths of a percent.
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Replying to @zacharylipton
This says almost all i wanted to say, longer than 140. http://andrewgelman.com/2016/11/06/different-election-forecasts-not-different/ …
8:32 PM - 6 Nov 2016
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