Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
So do RCP averages and very basic demographics almost as well, even with the crappy polling.
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I'm confused. Are you saying that elections are too easy or too hard?
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Neither. Hard to adjudicate current debate: is 538 topline too favorable to Trump. How could we tell? Unless T won.
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