Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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using state poll data... so 11 presidential elections*50 states*n polls per state... model reliability of indiv polls
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run simulation 20k times and make an analysis of the results. ~ to what we did to model 2009 pandemic in real time
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