Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
How would we know if the model is "a bit" wrong? Some wrong? Not clear there's a way. Trump win would inform but that's it.
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look at state races, gives you 50 data points instead of 1?
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I wonder, has anyone intelligently modeled the correlation in various states' deviation from polls?
End of conversation
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