Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
Huge debate on 538 topline; little discussion on meaning of modeling a rare event with binary outcome via simulations.
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538 is uncharacteristically vague to their readers about what the "simulations" mean. # of sims means nothing if the model is wrong
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How would we know if the model is "a bit" wrong? Some wrong? Not clear there's a way. Trump win would inform but that's it.
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Whether or not you use simulations doesn't matter. This is just Monte Carlo inference, bc inference on probabilistic models is hard
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