Yep. Binary outcome=no way to judge the model. Poll avgs are plenty good info. No need to obsess over 538 topline.https://twitter.com/andrewjperrin/status/795457139229782016 …
We shall see! But all the historical predictions over the past year are unjudgeable.
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@zeynep I think that's true if you're just using them the way most people do, for entertainment. Less true if you were using forecasts...Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@zeynep ...the way campaigns might use forecasts, to divy up scarce resources to influence the outcome. But the topline % not best thereThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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