.@HerbieLewis The whole debate people are having is about 538 probability distributions; little debate on what those actually are.
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@zeynep The philosophical question is really difficult to answer, yeah. I can't imagine how to use outcome to show Upshot vs PEC probs. -
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@zeynep But I think there's a lot of underpinnings in the 538 model that we will be able to discuss with evidence after election. - Show replies
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And these events make up nearly all of history and entrepreneurship. Applying stats in most of these cases is pseudoscience.
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This statement is too strong. You don't need to run same experiments multiple times to observe patterns.
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or: since you can't repeat the event, maybe you need an analysis that embraces its singularity. Hi I'm an anthropologist...
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This Q has been debated for 100s of years. Bayesian vs frequentist. Do probabilities signify degrees of belief/frequency?
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Right; that aspect is missing in the current debate raging on whether 538 topline is "wrong".
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You integrate over all possible Feynmam paths which match present observations; natural way to talk % for binary events.
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Oh, we can redo this again and again, but nobody really wants to see this over and over.
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