Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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@zeynep My feeling is there's no credit for being right on accident. Maybe there's some ledger God keeps where Trump is really 30% now... -
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@zeynep ...but if how you get there's to be wrong on intermediary steps (EV, state outcomes, popular vote margin) you weren't really right - Show replies
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Since "chance to win" is a hypothesis which can't be shown True or False, it's pseudo-science.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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